The Raiders have reportedly made (but not yet officially announced) the somewhat surprising hire of Greg Olson as their new offensive coordinator. Olson was surprising because he has had a few chances at being an offensive coordinator in the NFL already and has never showed any amazing success.
I wanted to see how Olson had done in his previous stops so I gathered the following data to see how he stacked up with both his predecessors and his successors.
First, for comparison purposes, here are the numbers for the last two years for the Raiders:
Now, here is a chart that shows how teams did before, during and after Greg Olson was their offensive coordinator. I also included some defensive numbers to see if there was any indication that his offense helped the defense get better. There are some conclusions that will be drawn below but here is the data.
The color coding is as follows:
Red = Greg Olson was not on the staff in any capacity.
Orange = Greg Olson was on the staff either as QB coach or coordinator but was not the primary playcaller
Green = Greg Olson was the play-calling offensive coordinator
Now, for some conclusions. First, as you can see from the info above, Greg Olson has never been a coordinator of an offense that ranked better than 20th, statistically. He has been a playcalling offensive coordinator for 5 seasons and in 4 of those 5 seasons his offense ranked 27th or worse in terms of points scored.
Further, the offenses of the teams that he calls plays for do substantially worse than others with many of the same players. In fact, on average the teams he calls plays for dropped almost 5.5 points per game in his first season calling plays.
That data and some other info is highlighed here:
Also troubling is that 2 of the 3 teams he was coordinator for improved the next season, after he was fired. St Louis was the exception, dropping in most every category.
In Olson's defense, two of the the teams he was hired to coordinate, the Detroit Lions and the St Louis Rams, were almost devoid of offensive talent at the times he was there.
However, there is enough data to indicate that Olson also isn't able to bring out the best in his players, a troubling conclusion now that the Raiders have tabbed Olson for the Raiders coordinator position.
Olson does seem to be a good fit with the personnel in place in Oakland as he's a proponent of the power blocking scheme that works much better with RB Darren McFadden and he has a good down-field passer in Carson Palmer so Raiders fans will have to hope that his previous stops are not indicative of his powers and were, instead, more related to the lack of talent with which Olson had to work.
What do you think of the Olson hire? You can let me know in the notes or If you're on Twitter, give me a follow @AsherMathews and tell me what you think.
I LOVE RAIDERS FANS...THE BEST IN THE UNIVERSE!!!!!
Great points on stats and other circumstances..I echo RealRaider and do not think that Asher you are judging GO at all...like corporate financials, they can be misleading without explanations ie was left tackle out all season....continue with your awesome work!
If Olsen can improve the running game and not mess up with passing game our offense will improve. What Oakland needs to improve on the most is the D.
I'm still waiting for some positive signs from this new hierarchy. My first question is why are we slumming? Why pick a guy who has never even sniffed success? On top of that - he's been on the worst teams in the league. Why is that significant? Because it's easier to make huge strides statistically when you're running the offense of a team that was terrible the year before. I always try to keep a good thought - but imho? Another dog pick by a regime that is in WAY over their heads.
Concerning Jake Long - he's done. I live in South Florida - there's no doubt the Fins are going to either cut him loose or sign him for a lot less money. He was the best before the injuries - but now he's damaged goods and will never be the same again. He's not going to anchor any team in the future.
Dennis Allen has bet his own career on Olsen's ability to run this offense. Without significant improvement from the offense, Dennis Allen will be looking for and assistant position next year. It appears that Allen has done a great job of motivating players. The Raiders refused to quit last year and made nice runs in the 4th quarter of several games. Penalties were way down. The problem was the lack of an effective and/or creative scheme on offense and defense. He must make big strides fixing those problems or he is toast!
Easy to just look at stats numbers do lie. They don't show the other factors that caused the change. How can u judge a coach that hasn't hosted a practice with this current group? Players and execution make coaches. No matter the call talent and execution make the play.
The one thing with this new hiring and switching back to the PBS, leaving the ineffective (for us) ZBS behind for the time being, is that we just signed our most expensive FA signing Brisiel who is primarily a ZBS blocker, as well as we used our top draft pick (granted a 3rd is not a lot all things considering) on Bergstrom - a G/T prospect who is known for his ZBS skills (and lacking strength)!
Carlisle is clearly also a better fit for the ZBS and is getting to old to count on, so what to do?
I would really hope that we could get a guy like Jake Long at a reduced price (still a major force when healthy and he and Velheer could easily be our bookends for the future), or one of the tope RTs available in Vollmer, but with the cap and severely lacking overall talent on the roster (with more cuts coming no doubt), it's difficult to guess how the money and draft picks will be prioritized..
Would love to see us trade down in the draft to stack up on some overall talent level (even though the draft is not that deep this year)!
--- Trading our #3 for the Rams' #16 and #22 (fitting on the draft trade value chart) could be an option, but generating an extra 1st or 2nd rd pick or two in general could go a long way. RM definately considers it as he loves his picks, and Joeckel, Lotulelei or a riser could perhaps become the incentive that could get us there!
Just hope that we can get some continuity going so the draft picks and FA signings can be utilized going forward without too much replacing due to scheme changes!
On the surface i must admit that i don't really understand or like this hiring, but that is mainly based on the statistics from previous years as well as other available candidates, not any real knowledge of him or his playcalling!
... However, i do find some sort of solace in the fact that Dennis Allen most definately knows that his newly hired OC will need to greatly improve the Offense if he is to stay on as HC going forward, so it has to be a well considered choice of his (not buying the notion of him selecting an OC that would not shine too bright and take over his job)!
Dennis Allen undoubtedly has way better knowledge of football than i and the vast majority of fans do, and as he has no doubt done his due diligence, it will be interesting to see how it develops! Could be a positive surprise despite our initial reservations (unlike Knabb)!
I do have the concern that we only have had a very limited selection of potential OCs to choose from though, subsequently causing the hire to be more a result of limited possibilities than real abilities! Keeping my hopes high that DA truly have found us an OC who can surprise and establish the offense by playing to its strength and help create some stability and continuity going forward!
---> Now go get a seasoned ST coach and solid LB and Oline coaches as well, they are sourely needed!
His track record doesn't look great, but maybe this time will be different, but I'm keeping optimistic.