The Raiders may be without their top 3 2012 Defensive Tackels in 2013 as Richard Seymour and Desmond Bryant are both free agents and Tommy Kelly is thought a likely cap casualty.  The only DT from 2013 that is sure to be on the roster is 2nd year player Christo Bilukidi.

Therefore, the Raiders are going to be in the market for at least 1 and probably more like 2 DTs in free agency and the draft.

Here is a look at the 5 best defensive tackles in the 2013 NFL Draft:

1.Star Lotulelei 6’3 320 lbs Utah
Possibly my #1 prospect in the entire draft, Star Lotulelei is a violent football player.  He shows good burst and uses it to put linemen on their heels. He also has good strength at the point of attack and moves extremely well in space for a man his size. I Believe Star could line up inside in any front and could also line up at 5-tech (outside at DE) in a 3-4.
Pro Comparison: Haloti Ngata

 

As we look back on the 2012 season that was it’s interesting to look back at the 2012 Raiders team that was, celebrate their strengths (few that there were) and discuss the weaknesses.  There are many ways to do this – film review, interviews with those involved and, finally, statistical breakdown which will be our focus for today.

As with an actual football team, it all starts with a quarterback.  Raiders QB Carson Palmer looked like he was going to have great year at the start of the season, throwing for yards, scoring points and reducing his turnovers but the team’s offense couldn’t get into gear and he slumped in the second half of the season and ended up missing the last game due to injury.

Football Outsiders have a stat which they call DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) in which the team at Football Outsiders not only take into account the run and pass results (i.e. “run left tackle for 3 yards”) but also whether that run was successful (did it get the yards needed? For example a 3 yard one on 3^rd & 1 was successful but a 3 yard run on 3^rd & 4 was not).  It’s a fairly complicated formula that I haven’t taken the time to properly understand completely but if you wish to, you can read much more about DVOA here.

Carson Palmer’s DVOA for the 2012 season was -2.4% which means that he was less valuable, per play, than an average quarterback per their metrics.  Overall, Palmer came in 18^th on the list of QBs ranked by DVA (minimum of 100 passes attempted).

Palmer was in good company at 18^th (regular season only accounted) as he was right between first time Super Bowl QB Joe Flacco at 17^th (-1.4%) and possible rookie of the year Andrew Luck (-5.2%).  For what it’s worth the man who took his place in Cincinnati, Andy Dalton, was at 20^th place (-5.9%).

As the draft approaches, TFDS is making our way through the top at every position.  See past posts on the main page for a look at the top 5 prospects at each offensive position.  Today we start with the defense and with one of the most important defensive positions - defensive end.

The Raiders lacked a consistent pass rush last year in large part because they did not have great pass rushing talent at defensive end.  Many people believe the team may be interested in drafting an elite DE in the draft, especially if they stay in a base 4-3 alignment.

Defensive Ends:

1. Barkevious Mingo 6’5 240 lbs LSU
Prototypical in every way, Mingo has the speed, size and length to play in the NFL and possesses underrated strength. He’s a high-energy guy and his motor runs all the time.  He follows the ball until the whistle blows which gets him involved even on downs in which the ball is initially moving away from him.

He doesn’t have a lot of pass rush moves and he needs to learn how to quickly transition from speed to power and vice versa. He sometimes struggles with pad-level issues where he comes out of his stance too high but when he gets low and bends the edge, he can be devastating.

Unlike many pass rushers, Mingo was asked to spy QBs or cover RBs in the flat as opposed to rushing the passer on most downs. I think this harmed his stock as he didn’t accrue the same amount of pass rushing stats but the film shows that when he is assigned to rush the passer he’s consistently able to get pressure.

Mingo is underrated against the run but he does sometimes have a tendency to allow blockers to lock onto him when he comes out of his stance high. He’ll be able to hold up against the run if he adds 10-15 lbs and still be able to play up as a linebacker or as an end with his hand on the ground.
Pro Comparison: Aldon Smith.

As the Raiders start to transition from Greg Knapp’s offensive philosophies towards new coordinator Greg Olson’s, there are many questions about what sort of changes will be made.  Many of the details – Which plays does he use as his staples? What is his run blocking philosophy?  - will only be known through film study and then as we get a look at his vision of the team come training camp.
 

In the meantime it seemed worthwhile to get information on his play-calling tendencies in a statistical analysis.  To do this, I painstakingly went through 8 games – the first half of the 2011 season when he was the offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Bucs – and tracked every pass and run to see Olson’s tendencies.

As we approach the NFL Draft in April, TFDS is ranking the top prospects at every position.  Today's focus, the last of the series of offensive positions, is on the Centers and Guards.  Two of the most under appreciated positions in the NFL, Guards and Centers rarely get the credit they deserve on a well working offensive line.

Not glory boys like offensive tackles, Centers and Guards are the players responsible for guarding the quarterback from the biggest threats he'll face - pressure up the middle from defensive tackles and blitzing linebackers or safeties.

Most defenses love a soft interior offensive line because it's much easier to rush up the gut than expend energy trying to go around a left tackle.  Here are some prospects the Raiders may consider as they look to solidify their offensive line play under new OL coach Tony Sparano

Centers/Guards:

1. Chance Warmack 6’2 322 lbs Alabama
Dominant is the word that comes to mind when I watch Warmack, who is probably the best college football player in the country.  Unfortunately, he’s not typically recognized as such because of the position he plays.  However, Warmack has dominated SEC defenses routinely as a member of Alabama’s line. 

He’s able to keep some of the best defensive linemen in college football at bay, locking on and eating them up with a vacuum grip.  Warmack has a great anchor and uses his hands well in pass protection and those skills transfer well to driving linemen back in the run game. 

Warmack will be great addition to any OL and although he played G at Alabama, Center may be a better position due to size.
Pro Comparison: Bobbie Williams

This week in Mobile, Alabama, 32 NFL teams will get an up-close look at some of the draft’s fastest rising prospects. None will get a closer look, however, than the North and South coaching staffs.

While Jim Schwartz and his Detroit Lions coaching staff will work with the South squad, Dennis Allen and the Raiders will be coaching the North

This could not come at a better time for the talent-thirsty Raiders as they quickly approach a crucial draft. While every draft is important, the Raiders have so many holes on their roster that they need to come away with players they can build around - especially with their first round selection, where the Raiders haven’t had much luck over the last decade.

The Senior Bowl will also allow Allen’s staff the opportunity to work with the less heralded draft prospects in hopes that they can find a few diamonds in the rough. Luckily for the Raiders, the North defense is absolutely stacked with players who look like NFL starters.

Here are some North squad draft prospects who could fit in with the Raiders:

The Raiders have reportedly made (but not yet officially announced) the somewhat surprising hire of Greg Olson as their new offensive coordinator.  Olson was surprising because he has had a few chances at being an offensive coordinator in the NFL already and has never showed any amazing success.

I wanted to see how Olson had done in his previous stops so I gathered the following data to see how he stacked up with both his predecessors and his successors.

First, for comparison purposes, here are the numbers for the last two years for the Raiders:

Now, here is a chart that shows how teams did before, during and after Greg Olson was their offensive coordinator. I also included some defensive numbers to see if there was any indication that his offense helped the defense get better.  There are some conclusions that will be drawn below but here is the data.