The Force was not with the Raiders again last Sunday. I'd like to tell you it was due to something different I haven't told you before. I'd like to tell you it was a loss that really meant something to the players. I'd like to tell you it will never happen again… but I just can't tell you that.

To be honest, I've had a bad feeling about this season since week 2. It makes you simply want to fast forward time and wait until we have a team that is truly worth a damn. Damnation, if I only had that power.

One day we'll have a quarterback that is accurate, durable, full of energy and throws a strong ball. He'll run when he needs to run, check down when he needs to check down and make the "Al Davis" pass when the game calls for it.

We had quarterbacks in the past that executed in that manner. There was Lamonica, Stabler, Punkett and finally Gannon who took us to the next level, as the Raider Nation was reborn once again in Oakland.

Since then we've been waiting. Waiting for the greatness of a QB leader to sit at his silver and black throne.

Is there a quarterback on this squad at the present time? I'd like to think so. For all the good things I hear of Terrelle Pryor, I also hear many bad things as well. Sure, I hear the fans as well as writers boast of how the opposition will turn around with his mere presence on the field, but as a realest, I can honestly say I believe we don't have much yet.   

If our man gets more reps in the future and possibly next game, maybe that's when we'll truly know if we have something. For now I'm still not sold.

This piece is the second in a few in which I attempt to predict what things will change and what will stay the same for Dennis Allen’s second year coaching the Silver & Black.  I hope that my predictions turn out to be more accurate than the Mayans’. 

In a previous piece I went through the coaching staff and predicted that defensive coordinator Jason Tarver would be back coaching the defense in 2013 and I still think that’s likely.  In this piece I will attempt to delve into some of what I think that means for next year’s Raiders defense.  This piece will not address all of the many players headed to free agency or that the Raiders may draft, etc – I will do that in a following piece – but more on how the defensive philosophy will change.

Prediction 1: Raiders convert to a 3-4

That is, the Raiders convert to a base 3-4 alignment.  They will still run 4-3 alignments but I’m guessing that the Raiders will convert to a 3-4 as their primary (or base) defensive alignment.  There are several reasons to believe this will occur.

First, both Allen and Tarver are defensive minded coaches and both have a great deal of history running the 3-4.  Tarver, specifically, ran one at Stanford which is where he coached defense before being hired by the Raiders.

More recently, the Raiders have started to experiment with 3-4 looks.  Here is a picture from the Raiders/Kansas City game in which the Raiders had 3 down lineman and 4 in the LB position. 

In this instance the outside LB positions are actually filled by DE Lamarr Houston and FS Tyvon Branch, both who blitzed on the play. The two ILBs are Miles Burris and Philip Wheeler.

The Raiders also had downs in where they played a 3-3-5 alignment versus both KC and Carolina.  A 3-3-5 is when the team has 3 down linemen, 3 linebackers and 5 defensive backs.  Usually when they went into this alignment, DE Houston would operate as a standup linebacker on the left side of the defensive line but would either rush or go into coverage – he dropped into coverage across the middle on a zone once, and had an assignment on Jamaal Charles on two downs.  On others, he rushed from a stand up position.

Even with Houston’s time as a standup linebacker it’s not likely the team is seriously looking at him as an OLB – he projects much better to a 5 technique DE – that puts him on the outside shoulder of the tackle.

But, it’s significant in that the team is looking at players in a 3 down lineman set to see if it’s something they want to do next year.  In terms of personnel, a transition will not get any easier than now.  The team has a huge number of free agents – almost half the roster – and will need to get a NT or two regardless of whether they play the 3-4 or the 4-3.  They can make the decision, now, as to which way they’d like to go and get a good start on their free agency wish list.

The Raiders were held without a touchdown for the second straight week but unlike last week’s victory against the Chiefs, field goals were not enough against the Panthers who put the Raiders away, 17-6.

The Panthers’ team was not significantly better but, despite being called for 10 penalties for 97 yards they were able to capitalize on their red zone trips and their two TDs and a FG where the Raiders 0-2 in their two trips to the redzone.

The Raiders have now gone 2 full games without scoring a TD.  But the ineptitude of the Raiders offense is much more than that.  The Raiders have scored a number of touchdowns in garbage time this year and, in general, have not been able to score when it’s needed, trailing most of the teams they are playing throughout the game.

In fact, a review of the Raiders previous games showed that the last time the Raiders scored a TD that either put them into the lead or maintained a lead for them was on November 4^th, when the Raiders played Tampa Bay – a game they eventually lost.  That was now 7 weeks ago.

Needless to say, the 2012 season won’t end the way GM Reggie McKenzie and head coach Dennis Allen envisioned. As the season draws to a close, there is no shortage of decisions to be made about the direction the Raiders are going. Certainly the Raiders will be heading into a slightly more accommodating salary cap situation, if only because several large contracts are expiring (most notably Richard Seymour’s). The Raiders will also have a 1st round draft pick for the first time since they drafted Rolando McClain in 2010. While the talent level of the roster needs to be addressed, the Raiders may face even tougher decisions on their coaching staff. With two regular season games left, McKenzie and Allen will have to evaluate their staff and roster and finalize plans for the offseason as they try to steer the franchise in the right direction.

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Who will be the offensive coordinator in 2013?
Greg Knapp’s future with the Raiders is very much in doubt. To be fair, while he is a popular punching bag with the Raider fan base, the struggles of the offense have been far from all his fault. Knapp’s play designs are not inherently bad. And while the playcalling has been spotty at times, the failures on offense have been largely because of poor execution - bad blocking, dropped balls, errant passes. Still, the simple truth is that Knapp was not the Raiders’ first choice. He was hired after the Raiders interviewed a couple other candidates, and even that was long after pretty much every other team in the league had their coaching staff already set.

There remains a distinct possibility that Knapp will return in 2013. Maybe for the sake of continuity, or because it’s not as simple as most fans think to “upgrade” at a coaching position. Coaches who are successful in one environment don’t necessarily see automatic success in another environment. Likewise, coaches who struggle in one of their previous stops may find more success with different players to work with and a new coaching staff around them.
 

It's a beautiful thing when our team wins, eh Nation?

Time and time again, we have not seen our Oakland Raider scheme execute in a manner we would like it to. Week after week, we wonder what type of players we have on our team; pondering which players should stay and which players should leave the facility as quickly as the Falcon clears Space.

So, it is kind of weird seeing all of it come together on a special Sunday. Is all forgiven? Of course not! Allen and Knapp, the Nation still wonders today why in the HELL you would pump up the crowd by putting in Terrelle Pryor for one series in which he would only pass one damn time? Now is the time to give him AT LEAST a half to work with. Why not give him the kind practice he actually needs on a real, live field?

Sith Lord knows, we have already seen what Carson Palmer can do… and then some.

The Raiders recorded their first shutout since 2002 with a 15-0 victory over the hapless Kansas City Chiefs, today.  The game was the team’s last home game of the season.

The Chiefs were terrible on offense the entire game, failing to get so much as a first down until the second half.  Brady Quinn, who was once in the conversation for the number one overall pick along with JaMarcus Russell, was under fire throughout the game but also failed to be very effective in doing anything for the 2-12 Chiefs.  His receiving corps, minus starter Dwayne Bowe (on IR), didn’t help him much, though, dropping many passes throughout the afternoon.

All of the Raiders points were scored on Sebastian Janikowski field goals.  Janikowski made 5 field goals, total, with the longest a 57 yarder. He also missed from 51 yards.

The Raiders’ running game looked revived against the KC defense.  Darren McFadden crossed 100 yards for the first time since week 8, also against Kansas City, when he went for 114 yards rushing on 29 carries.  He had a very similar stat line today, ending with 110 yards on the ground and receiving 30 handoffs.

This piece is the first of a few  in which I will go through my thoughts on the likely direction of the Oakland Raiders at the conclusion of the season.  Future articles will discuss my predictions on the direction of the offense and defense in general and specific players.

Here are my thoughts on the coaching staff.  I try to walk through this very logically and sequentially so each successive point builds off the previous points.  The future articles will build on these points as well to create as full a picture as I can.

So, please enjoy my predictions on the coaching staff for the 2013 Oakland Raiders and let me know what you think either in the comments section or on Twitter @AsherMathews

Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen aren’t going anywhere:

“My long-term goal was to research and identify a general manager to lead the Raider organization into the future. I consulted with Ron Wolf to help me identify potential candidates, one of which was Reggie McKenzie.

“Unfortunately, league rules prohibited us from contacting any current employees of other National Football League teams until the end of the regular season. So for three months, I did extensive research into all the potential candidates for the job.

“But early on, I recognized that Reggie McKenzie was the man I was looking for to lead the Raiders into the future. On January 1^st, the shackles were off and we were finally able to ask the Green Bay Packers for permission to interview Reggie McKenzie to become general manager of the Oakland Raiders. On January 2^nd, the Green Bay Packers graciously granted that permission.

“I called Reggie, we spoke briefly, and made arrangements for him to fly in for an interview. We met with John Madden for about six hours and reached an agreement that Reggie would become the general manager of the Oakland Raiders. After the meeting, I texted Reggie that my father used to say, ‘The greatness of the Raiders is in its future.’

“Reggie, the future is now. Ladies and gentlemen, Reggie McKenzie.”

This is how Raiders owner Mark Davis introduced General Manager Reggie McKenzie at the press conference on January 10^th.  While Davis has expressed dissatisfaction with the current record it seems unlikely that, even with a disappointing year, he is going to replace McKenzie already.

No, Reggie McKenzie’s job is safe for another year, at least, but likely for a few more years while he tries to bring some consistency and stability to a franchise that has seen upheaval after upheaval in recent years.