The 2013 Combine kicked off today and the action starts tomorrow as the players begin their testing in font of scouts, GMs and coaches.

As the Combine gets ready to go, TFDS gives our final Pre-Combine rankings, looking at the Safeties.  The Raiders are likely set at Free Safety with former top 10 pick Michael Huff returning next season but if one of the these guys fell, Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie may just snap up a talented safety to groom for the future.

1. Kenny Vaccaro 6’1 215 lbs Texas
A very good man coverage safety that can line up as a slot corner if needed, Vaccaro shows good deep zone cover, too.  He shows proficiency reading the QB and flying to the ball.

Very versatile, he can come off the edge as a blitzer, also.  Vaccaro is a decent tackler who has the vision and instincts to be there but he can be over aggressive on his pursuit and take bad angles.

A relentless competitor and on-field leader, Vaccaro has the potential to be a top safety in the league.
Pro Comparison: Michael Huff

 

The NFL Draft is fast approaching and the Combine starts in earnest tomorrow so TFDS is finishing up our rankings for each of the positions.

Today, we look at cornerbacks,a position that the Raiders so desperately need to upgrade from 2012:

1. Dee Milliner 6’2 200 lbs Alabama
Milliner has good size and fluid hips for the position. He shows great man to man skills, pressing his man at the line and running with him stride for stride.

He attacks the ball well in the air, with his head on a swivel and he’s always aware of where the ball is. 

He will have trouble in zone coverage and most especially with backpedaling, not doing much of it at Alabama. A hitter more than tackler, Milliner nevertheless reads the play well and can stop his man when needed. He’s also able to rush up and support the run on the edge.

He may lack the speed to be a top pick but if he posts a 4.4 - 4.5 40 yard dash, it could put him in the discussion for the top 10.
Pro Comparison: Derek Cox (not as fast)

There are a few different ways to grade football players.  One is by looking at tape and grading what your eye sees.  That can be highly subjective, however, with the viewer’s own prejudices coming out. 

Another very common way to look at a team’s success and failure is through statistical analysis.  Statistics are objective – although the application and interpretation of them may not be – but it also lacks the nuance of taking into account the circumstances.

For example, as with the Raiders some time ago, a team can be ranked very high in their pass coverage because their run defense is so bad, opposing teams don’t need to pass against them.  That nuance isn’t taken into account in the ranking of the pass defense.

So, take the following statistics with a grain of salt.  Some of these may be interesting and applicable and some may not.

There are two “specialized” statistical football websites that focus on non-regular statistics for football teams: ProFootballFocus and Football outsiders.

Below are some of the Raiders-specific statistics from both sites.

First, we’ll start with some PFF Signature Stats:

-At CB, two Raiders were in the top 15 worst in yards allowed per snap in pass coverage - Ron Bartell at 1.65 & Joselio Hanson at 1.69 yards allowed per snap in coverage.

-Neither of them were the worst, however. Per PFF, the qualifying CB that allowed the most yards per snap in pass coverage?  Former Raider & Chief defensive back Stanford Routt at 2.22

-WR Darrius Heyward-Bey was in the bottom 15 in PFF's yards per route run - He averaged only 1.19 yards for every route he ran.  Even worse was former Raiders WR Louis Murphy who averaged only .86 yards for every route ran.

The Raiders struggled on defense at various points last year and it's not entirely clear whether the Raiders will have any of 2012's starting linebackers other than Miles Burris back.  Two of last year's starting linebackers - Phillip Wheeler, Omar Gaither - will be free agents in March if the team doesn't resign them before March 12th.

The other starting linebacker, Rolando McClain, is a likely cut this offseason.

The team is also potentially moving to a 3-4 alignment.  In that scenario, Burris would likely move from weakside LB, where he played in the 4-3 alignment, to inside linebacker in the 3-4.

The team, therefore, will be in the market for linebackers - both outside and inside linebackers.

Here is a look at the top prospects in each category in the 2013 NFL Draft:

Outside Linebackers:

1. Chase Thomas 6’4 250 lbs Stanford
Thomas is far from flashy as an athlete, but he more then makes up for it with great technique and motor.  With a great first step and and good hand useage, he can bend the edge and has a good array of moves to get to the QB but he needs to add a power move.

Thomas is a good run defender, able to get his arms extended then shed blocks to make the tackle but he can get overwhelmed by better tackles and run at.  He might not have the upside of others but has more refined technique.

Pro Comparison: Connor Barwin

 

This article is the opinion of contributor Ryan Marple

It has been a week since offensive remarks were made by San Francisco CB Chris Culliver at Media Day. For those of you who didn't hear the quotes, Culliver was asked if he would welcome a gay teammate. His response, "I don't do the gay guys. I don't do that.  We don't have any gay guys on the team.  They gotta get up outta here if they do. Can't be with that sweet stuff. Yeah, come out 10 years later after that,” Culliver said.

I, like most, find these comments completely unacceptable.  Since these statements, the 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh and Culliver himself have since come out to “clarify” his original statement,  Unfortunately, the clarifications were almost as hilariously bad as the original!  Culliver’s apology was a joke, and the way he conducted himself in the apologetic press conference gave me no reason to believe him. 

What he specifically said was, “"The derogatory comments I made yesterday were a reflection of thoughts in my head, but they are not how I feel.   It has taken me seeing them in print to realize that they are hurtful and ugly. Those discriminating feelings are truly not in my heart. Further, I apologize to those who I have hurt and offended, and I pledge to learn and grow from this experience."  He also said he thinks he was baited into making a controversial statement.  Way to take responsibility, man.

So let me get this straight; those were thoughts in your head, but not in your heart?  And that's supposed to be a genuine apology?  How can we, the public, buy that he is sincere?  The “apology” was clearly forced from upper management and his head coach, and it's clear to me he didn't clearly grasp what he did wrong. It reminded me of my childhood when my parents would force me to say “I'm sorry” to my brothers, but all parties involved really knew I wasn't sorry. 

One of the things that make Culliver's statement so horrendous is the fact he plays in San Francisco, which is the informal “gay capital” of the United States of America.  San Francisco has been on the forefront of gay rights advocacy since Harvey Milk in the 1970s. Now a player for the team in that very same city is coming out publicly, on the biggest media day in sports, and expressing his intolerance? Unacceptable.

The Raiders may be without their top 3 2012 Defensive Tackels in 2013 as Richard Seymour and Desmond Bryant are both free agents and Tommy Kelly is thought a likely cap casualty.  The only DT from 2013 that is sure to be on the roster is 2nd year player Christo Bilukidi.

Therefore, the Raiders are going to be in the market for at least 1 and probably more like 2 DTs in free agency and the draft.

Here is a look at the 5 best defensive tackles in the 2013 NFL Draft:

1.Star Lotulelei 6’3 320 lbs Utah
Possibly my #1 prospect in the entire draft, Star Lotulelei is a violent football player.  He shows good burst and uses it to put linemen on their heels. He also has good strength at the point of attack and moves extremely well in space for a man his size. I Believe Star could line up inside in any front and could also line up at 5-tech (outside at DE) in a 3-4.
Pro Comparison: Haloti Ngata

 

As we look back on the 2012 season that was it’s interesting to look back at the 2012 Raiders team that was, celebrate their strengths (few that there were) and discuss the weaknesses.  There are many ways to do this – film review, interviews with those involved and, finally, statistical breakdown which will be our focus for today.

As with an actual football team, it all starts with a quarterback.  Raiders QB Carson Palmer looked like he was going to have great year at the start of the season, throwing for yards, scoring points and reducing his turnovers but the team’s offense couldn’t get into gear and he slumped in the second half of the season and ended up missing the last game due to injury.

Football Outsiders have a stat which they call DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) in which the team at Football Outsiders not only take into account the run and pass results (i.e. “run left tackle for 3 yards”) but also whether that run was successful (did it get the yards needed? For example a 3 yard one on 3^rd & 1 was successful but a 3 yard run on 3^rd & 4 was not).  It’s a fairly complicated formula that I haven’t taken the time to properly understand completely but if you wish to, you can read much more about DVOA here.

Carson Palmer’s DVOA for the 2012 season was -2.4% which means that he was less valuable, per play, than an average quarterback per their metrics.  Overall, Palmer came in 18^th on the list of QBs ranked by DVA (minimum of 100 passes attempted).

Palmer was in good company at 18^th (regular season only accounted) as he was right between first time Super Bowl QB Joe Flacco at 17^th (-1.4%) and possible rookie of the year Andrew Luck (-5.2%).  For what it’s worth the man who took his place in Cincinnati, Andy Dalton, was at 20^th place (-5.9%).