Word around Raider circles is that Hue Jackson has complete control over personnel decisions. He is already throwing his weight around. Jason Campbell goes down with what could be a season ending injury and it turns out to be a Raider career ending injury as Hue Jackson bet the Raiders' future to get Carson Palmer as his replacement.
That future he is betting on Palmer includes the Raiders' 2012 first round pick and a conditional 2013 first round pick. The 2013 pick is a second rounder that becomes a first rounder if the Raiders make the AFC Championship game in one of the next two seasons. Either way it is a steep price for a 31 year old quarterback who hasn't been to a Pro Bowl in five years.
Bengals owner Mike Brown has stated several times that he would be unwilling to "reward" Palmer for holding out and "retiring" but that was before any team had stepped up and made him an offer he couldn't refuse. Palmer could be the starter in Cincinnati right now and they likely would have shipped him out for that offer.
Not only is Palmer closer to the twilight of his career than the dawn, he has suffered from several knee and ankle injuries in recent seasons, though I suppose that is what the conditional pick is for--but giving up even one first round pick is too much if Palmer doesn't perform.
Hue Jackson likes to say he's "living on the edge" but up to this point it appears the presence of Al Davis was the only thing keeping him from going over that edge.
Don't get me wrong, Carson Palmer was the only viable candidate out there. If the Raiders don't get Palmer, they would need to ride with Boller as their starter as none of the available free agents would be worthy of starting over him. David Garrard was a candidate intitially but he soon took himself out of the picture when he announced he needs back surgery.
Palmer was it. Hue clearly didn't feel comfortable with Boller as the Raiders' starter but little did we know just how uncomfortable he was with that prospect.
This move has seriously altered the fates of Kyle Boller and Jason Campbell.
For Boller it shows that Hue has no confidence in his ability to win. It shows that Hue thinks of him as a backup and nothing more, and destroys his confidence as a quarterback. As if the press conference in which Hue all but stated that the team was looking for a "championship quarterback" didn't already tell him he wasn't considered to be one.
For Campbell, it effectively ends his career as a Raider. The man who was seen as the Raiders' long term answer just two days ago is now tossed on the scrap heap. He went down with a broken collarbone two days before the NFL trade deadline and that sealed his fate.
The bright side for the Raiders is that outside of the 2008 season during much of which Palmer was injured, he threw for over 3000 yards in every season but his first full season. He has thrown for over 4000 yards twice and missed that plateau by just 30 yards last season. In his five full seasons since 2005 he has averaged over 26 touchdowns a seasons.
The darker side is that he has averaged over 15 interceptions in that time as well, throwing 20 interceptions twice including last season. He has taken the Bengals to the playoffs twice in his tenure as their starting quarterback but has never been able to win a playoff game.
After the Bengals swept their division in 2009 en route to the playoffs, they could muster just four wins in 2010. As a result, the disgruntled Palmer made his decision never to suit up as a Bengal again. He threatened to retire if they didn't trade him, and up until today it seemed he would stay retired.
Now an injury to Jason Campbell pulls Palmer from retirement, pushes Campbell out of Oakland, and sends Boller back to the sideline.
This also means the Raiders have traded away their first, second, third, fourth, and seventh round picks in 2012 and possibly their first and fifth round picks in 2013. The two 2013 picks are conditional based on playing time and performance of Palmer and recently acquired linebacker Aaron Curry. The Raiders could also be receiving some compensatory picks for the free agent losses of Nnamdi Asomugha, Robert Gallery, and Zach Miller. Those picks are decided by various factors including playing time and performance and offset by Raider free agent acquisitons so it is yet to be determined what the Raiders will receive.
This move is a bold statement by Hue Jackson that says the Raiders are trading away their future because the future is now and he is going all in.
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It is a gamble" but we have to change the culture of this place. Campbell is a super guy, but we need a leader. A Quaterback. The player comments from the Raiders after practice today more than validate JCs faults and the reasoning behind the trade.
By the way, I don't understand the stuff about Boller. It's not like if Hugh sweet talked him he'd suddenly become a good, starter quality qb in the league. In fact, assuming your right about destroying his confidence, it proves the point. Unless you don't think mental toughness is a hallmark of a winning qb
This deal is growing on me the longer time goes by! I just hope DHB can click with Palmer like he has Campbell and not stunt his growth to much with this QB change. I can see having Palmer opening our rushing game up some more just because of the extra threat of his arm that I don't think Campbell had.
One thing though, I would have liked if we had managed to acquire a 3rd or 4th pick in the upcoming draft also, but it is to late now. In saying this, I would not be surprised to see us trade one of our WR come draft time (Murphy or Schilens?) for a mid-round pick.
all these pundits saying Bengals are the winner in this deal just make me laugh. They got 2 draft picks. 1st Rd picks are nothing but that: picks. Ask Jarvis Moss and Aaron Curry how sure a thing that is. It is way too early to evaluate this deal ...
to me trent edwards is at the same level as boller and i hope palmer doesn't turn out to be kerry collins #2
WOW. It's obviously too early to evaluate the trade, but it is not early to look at what we can learn from this:
1. Hue is a gambler - you see that in his play calling too. What should not be lost in all of this, is that he is also gambling on his own future here. If this doesnt work out (ie we dont make playoffs as a minimum over next 2 seasons) then Hue is gone.Same scenario as St. Josh over in Denver.
This is his signature move as Raiders HC - and he will live or die by it. its a little more important than a 4th and 1 when you are up by 14. Personally Im a little uncomfortable giving him 100% authority - he is still inexperienced at this part of the game.
2. The organisation was not 100% sold on Campbell, as a long term answer at QB, whatever their public pronouncements. Campbell is done in Silver and Black - barring an injury to Palmer late in the season, when JC is ready to go again.
3. Pryor is a mile away from being ready to do anything but hold a clipboard.
4. Boller is hopeless (why keep him as backup ? He was hopeless last season too.) Was Trent Edwards really worse ? Difficult to believe.
5. The organisation believes that it has the D to win NOW. Anyone and everyone can see that we have the makings of a playoff-calibre offense, but the D ? Not so much. This move sends a message to the D: We believe in you - now make it happen.
Never dull being a Raider fan, thats for sure !
steep price, but an upgrade! better accuracy than campbell and can read defenses better. with boller, teams would stack the box and make him beat them, and he cant! he couldn't win with the ravens defense holding his back, and thats when their d was still lights out (its not to shabby now might i add). banking on him keeping us afloat till campbell (or if) he was to come back wasn't going to work. now palmer is motivated and wants to play now. him missing 6 games should have him completely healthy and ready to go. as long as the d shows up, we can beat the chiefs. i say throw him out there and lets roll!
I certainly remember all the talk about the Raiders giving up too much fro Seymour. I thnk proven talent is better the a first round crap shoot.
I have mixed feelings on all of this. First off, I was starting to lose faith in Cambell. Yes he did well as a game manager, but he was not a game changing quarterback. He had the luxury of having the best running back in the NFL. Palmer has the ability to strike down field in a way that Cambell just could not do consistenlty. With some of our spedy receivers, this could really be a match made in heaven. Couple that with our running game, and we could very well have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL now.
What has me worried is that I think we very well may be on the verge of being a Superbowl contender. Our big question mark is on defense. There are a few holes that need patching there. This deal really hampers our ability to do this.
If Al were still here I would be less worried. We will get some compensatory picks next year. Al sometimes wiffed on the first round picks, but he was great at finding talent in the later rounds. I hope he taught Hue well.
Couple of points... Boller is a back-up. We weren't going anywhere with him. If he doesn't like it? Who cares? We can find another back-up under any rock in any NFL city. Palmer was - FAR AND AWAY - the best option out there. Before you go slamming the guy - look at his numbers... 3900 yds, 62% completions, 26 TDs and 20 INTs last year. Numbers that are virtually identical to what everyone considers his "best" season... 2007. He's 31 - right in the prime of his career. Was he setting the league on fire the last couple years? No. Then again - he hated the team he was on too. That's a DE-motivator, folks. Okay, we gave up a #1 pick for him - the same pick we used to get Jamarcus Russell. The 2013 #1 is ONLY IF WE WIN A PLAYOFF GAME. Think it thru - if the Raiders win a playoff game this year - who's the QB next year? Palmer. So we give up 2 ones for a GUARANTEED PLAYOFF WINNING QB.
Steep price for Palmer? Yes. Remember the Seymour trade? Remember all the "experts" who claimed we gave up too much? Where are they now? I'll tell you where - singing Seymour's praises. You have to consider the window of opportunity in the NFL - 3 or 4 years tops. Look at the Jets - 2 years in the AFC title game and they're floundering again. This is today's NFL. If you want to wait around to see how the 2013 pick pans out, McFadden, Bush, Ford, Seymour, etc... might already be GONE. We already lost Nnamdi - you want to lose more players to time? The clock is ticking... the time is NOW. Al Davis built one last WINNER before he died - let's not squander the opportunity.
@Indy! First off, who is slamming Palmer? Second off I dont' recall anyone who claimed the Raiders gave up too much for Seymour.
@LDizzle The guy who wrote this blog.
And if you don't remember anyone saying that about Seymour - you have a short memory. Lots of folks said a first round was too much for a guy with only one year left on his contract in the "twilight" of his career (to use the blogger's term). There was the risk of losing him at the end of the season and not getting anything long term for the #1.
BTW, I'd rather give up the pick (especially if it's a 2) than Murphy. We have a lot of WRs, but if you notice - they get hurt pretty often too.
@LDizzle Well maybe you forgot what you wrote - it's mostly cons dude.
@Indy! My point exactly. Being that I am "the guy who wrote this blog." I didn't slam Palmer at all in this article. I like Palmer. The price was high and it is my duty to lay out the pros and cons. If you choose to look only at the cons and say I am "slamming" him, well I guess that is your interpretation but it isn't reality.
Wow! As far as I was concerned anymore than a 2013 Second Round pick was too much for Palmer!I was expecting Louis Murphy to be included in the trade as we have a lot of WR talent now and Murphy seems to be left behind. To me it shows Jackson has no faith in Boller and little faith in Pryor being our future QB for the next few years either.
While I believe Boller wasn't the answer, I do think we still could have won with Boller if our Defense was able to step up a couple notches. Only time will tell, but after making a smart low risk move like the Curry trade I was hoping Jackson wouldn't have overpaid for another QB which I think he has. I think we could have gotten Matt Flynn for less than this and his future looks so much brighter!
@nilbymouth not necessarily true about Pryor. all of us said 3-4 years on him anyway... that's about how long Palmer has left before he drops off... this is the perfect man to learn from in that time frame. Hue wants to give Pryor the time he needs so he's not thrown into the fire like he no doubt would have if we went the rest of the season with Boller and him...
I really feel for Jason Campbell! He was getting comfortable in the S&B, if played well this year was certain to be a contract and our QB for the foreseeable future... in one move he is replaced & I doubt will be offered the contract he wants & again find himself learning from another offensive coordinator.. I really like Jason Campbell..
However, it would appear that being the likeable chap that Hue Jackson is and never burning bridges, keeping good relationships with his previous employers has paid of.. he has managed to do something that I never thought likely! He changed the opinion of Mike Brown, who could be the hardest person to work with in the NFL.. he was ready to let Carson Palmer rot! but HJ & the Raiders staff came a calling & we have Carson Palmer! Yep, at a price, heavy one by the looks of it...
And don't worry about missing out on 1st round picks...in a 2/3 years we'll just trade for them, pick them up when they have been discarded by other teams as busts and turn them into the players they always could be! It usually takes 2/3 years for our 1st round draft picks to get into gear anyways.... why waste the money.. Looking on the bright side..
@LDizzle Levi.... in watching the CP press conference I heard you ask a question to HJ... it is also nice to put a voice to the man who wrote this blog..
I noticed your amazing question, which was completely different to those being asked was whether or not Hue Jackson had some influence over Mike Brown and his decision to change his mind over letting CP out of retirement and trading.. or words to that effect.
I can't help realise that this is pretty much the exact point that I raised above. did you read my post and ask HJ because of it or was it something you had penned down to ask anyway.. To be honest I would love you to have asked him because of my post.. ... but if it was penned in, I am pleased we were thinking a long the same lines..
At this point, I don't trust the draft. If anyone hasn't notice then you should know that Hue is a gambling man. He knows Carson better than any of us ever could with his time in Cinci. With that being said he is only 31 (turning 32). If our line can hold up then he could easily play this year and at 3 more. He knows Hue's philosophy very well. Next year's draft will be nonexistent but year after year we have to worry about our salary cap. We can only restructure so much before we don't retain guys in place of draft picks (i.e. Zach Miller). So that is the positive aspect of not having much of a draft next year. I do agree that its a steep price but only time will tell if it is that steep. I just hope Carson gels into the situation well. It's a shame for Campbell but how many times has he gotten hurt with us while scrambling? It was really only a matter of time. At the end of the day this trade really only hurts us if Carson doesn't win and stay healthy. So he has to just win baby!
As a side note as a little food for thought. At the end of the day, when you look at the Cutler trade for 2 1st rounders then you see the Donkeys didnt really end up with anything worth mentioning. So at least we get a guy who we know can get it done. Like how we got Richard Seymour and the Pats got Nate Solder (sp?) who is going through growing pains.
Two 1st (or a 1st and a 2nd if we don't win a PO game) is way to much for Palmer imo!
I agree that he was the only viable option if we decided not to go with Boller, but trading potentially two 1st rd picks is insane! That is the kind of deal you make for a Megastar! There are too many questions with Palmer - injuryconcerns, knowing the playbook concerns, report with the WR concerns and concerns whether he really wants to grind it out night and day with all those money in the bank - woulnd't we look dumb if he retires next year or the year after!
When that is said, i do believe he is a better option than Boller and Campbell, but imo we should never have overpaid more than max a 1st and 3rd, as we will seriously miss three 1st rd talents in a row! Especially now when we might have someone who can get some playable 1st rd talents! Too steep a price for me - for me, nothing less than an AFC conference game can merit that trade!
Could have gotten him for a 1st and Aaron Curry, so they must really be high on Curry! Hope he comes into his own and makes for a Franchise player down the road!
@Harder2000 you answered your own question my man. we had NO CHOICE ... Brown wasnt going to accept anything less... and Hue gave in as Brown KNEW he would... so bravo to him for being stubborn. there was nobody left, and it was a panic move. i think of it like the Seymour trade. Palmer has that kind of experience to show up at the coliseum on sunday and throw for 2 TDs like big Rich sacked Rivers twice. good times!